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Showing posts from May, 2017

Pre Monsoon Rains Expected in Sindh From 9th June!!!!

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European Models suggesting a deep depression to develop in Arabian sea brings moisture laden eastern currents or pre monsoon currents in parts of Sindh. Under its influence; Scattered Dust-thundershowers (with strong gusty winds) expected in Sindh from 8/9th June to 10th June. However, GFS expecting a western disturbance for Sindh during same period. It also showing a circulation in Arabian sea which brings pre monsoon currents. Overall,E+W interaction is expected in Sindh during that period, which may produce dust - thundershowers in sindh during same period. Both models are agree to have pre monsoon rains for Sindh during 8 to 10 June. Stay tune

Pre Monsoon Rains expected in Gujarat from Friday to Sunday;Sindh Awaits Rain till 10June

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As per expectations,a trough aloft to bring pre monsoon heavy showers in parts of Gujarat from Friday to Sunday. Sindh awaits Pre monsoon rain till 7 June.Then afterwards, a trough could effect sindh and cause showers in most parts of Sindh by 9th June. Stay tuned

THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT AT UPPER PUNJAB

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Latest thunderstorm map shows intense thunderstorms developments in upper Punjab.

HISTORY IN REVIEW:INTENSE MONSOON DEVELOPMENT IN HYDERABAD ON 6TH AUGUST 2016

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On 6th August 2016,some factors including uac provides strong monsoon currents and lifting mechanism along with instability caused a very strong monsoon development that brought very heavy falls in Hyderabad on 6th August 2016. . . . Around 12:30 or may be 1:00pm,strong thunderclouds started hovering the city and intense thundering started.It rained very heavily and continued with intense speed for more than 1 hour. Around 116mm recorded on that day. That was heaviest rain in Hyderabad in 2016. This below given map shows intense thunderstorms during that time.Core is near or at Hyderabad.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK:PRE MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3RD WEEK OF JUNE

According to LRF convective outlook, pre monsoon convection to cause thunderstorms in parts of Pakistan . The core of the convection (dark red colour) as shown in forecast map,might be over Punjab and adjoining parts. Perhaps,weak convective currents likely to prevail over Sindh during third week of June which will help to trigger afternoon thunderstorms in Sindh .Light showers probable during that period. We can't believe this map right now bc it is highly long range so changes possible. Stay tuned

BAY OF BENGAL TO THROW A STORM IN COMING DAYS

Here is a look at Bengal of Bengal's thunderstorm outlook map which indicates a presence of intense convection and associated tropical cyclone which will be named as 'MORA'. This storm will generate severe thunderstorms in BOB. Strong convection due to storm will also shift West Bengal of India.West Bengal will witness severe thunderstorms in coming days.

MONSOON AFFECTS: DISEASES THAT ARE DUE TO RAINS

Rain is often said as a blessing but sometimes rain can cause hilarious diseases that are mentioned below: COLD/FLU becomes common during rainy (monsoon period) season. Dengue becomes common due to stagnant water and people can suffer from dengue during monsoon season.Avoid getting close to stagnant water. Mosquitoes due to rain can also cause malaria.Many people suffer from malaria during monsoon season. There are number of diseases which occurs due to rain. To get rid of diseases, avoid getting wet during rain and stay indoors.Stay away from rain water.

FACT:AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DRENCHES MORE THAN A NEWLY BORN EVENING THUNDERSTORM!!

If we are concerned with thunderstorm then we are used to understand a term 'convection'.Atmospheric convection is a condition when warm air rises above cold air sustains at surface.Convection is a only way for release of heat.Due to convection,special type of clouds appear namely Cumulus and if Convection is strong then these cumulus clouds posses a vertical development that changes it to cumulonimbus clouds. Here is one commonly heard fact or a saying of elders that afternoon thunderstorm drenches an area more than a newly born evening thunderstorm. As,moisture and instability is a common need of thunderstorms.If a thundercloud is developed during afternoon then during evening instability further increases that causes clouds to further intensify and it can reach at highest peaks. Higher the altitude more the risk of severe thunderstorm.Severe thunderstorm can cause heavy rain,thunder,lightning, and strong gusty winds.Tornadoes can also develop but an additional ingredient

MONSOON 2017 UPDATES 1

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Higher temperature contrast/gradient along Arabian sea,is a first sign for monsoon to onset in Mumbai,due to tej by June 6/7. Coastal parts of Sindh may witness cloudy mornings as somalia currents are also expected to appear in Arabian sea. No any significant event is likely for Sindh during next 4 to 5 days.

MONSOON 2017:MONSOON IS ALL SET TO HIT KERALA BY MAY 29TH

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Monsoon is a word derived from Arabic word Mausim which means season. Actually monsoon is a seasonal reversal of winds due to surface heating.During summer,Tibet plateau heats up and low pressure develops over there and high pressure develops over south Indian ocean that causes winds to move from high pressure to lower pressure.That's what you should know about monsoons. Here's official and first monsoon update. Tej (tropical easterly jet) that propagates monsoon in all monsoon zones including Pakistan,has set up and is indicating onset of monsoon in Andaman and Nicobar islands. POSITIVE IOD:A MONSOON THRESHOLD: As most models are now certain that positive IOD will develop during monsoon and it will serve good rains as posted in last update. Monsoon likely to onset in Kerala by 29th May. ENSO PHASE MAY REMAINS NEUTRAL HOWEVER FEW MODELS SAY EL NINO WILL REVIVE. Monsoon to hit Sindh by first/second week of July (most probably). Another detailed monsoon watch will be iss

LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS (AS OF 25TH MAY 2017)

WEATHER ANALYSIS (AS OF NOW) A strong upper level westerly trough aloft present at Afghanistan/Pakistan border.This system may causes some rainfall in gilgit baltistan and Kashmir during next 24 hours.Monsoon is in progress and has advanced towards Andaman and Nicobar islands.It is expected to onset in Kerala by 29th May.Presently, a strong trough aloft is present in bay of Bengal which is equipped with convection and llcc is also present that may intensifies.A shallow trough also passing from Rajasthan (India),causing pre monsoon thunderstorms over there. As of now there are weak westerly systems in vicinity.Some systems may weakens before reaching Pakistan and some systems are expected to reach north Pakistan in coming days. Pre monsoon rains may approach Sindh during June 2017. One factor that is very good for monsoon that is positive IOD which will serve good rains in Sindh (Arabian sea branch). MJO expected to move north Indian,is getting certain according to various models.So