LATEST NOAA GFS RAIN FORECASTS FOR ASIA

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Climate statements by Bureau of meteorology

La Niña WATCH remains, while strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Niña thresholds. In contrast, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, with ocean temperature well above average in the eastern Indian Ocean and below average near Africa. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the negative IOD will persist until the end of spring, which historically has brought increased rainfall to southern Australia. Sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight. Some atmospheric indicators have shifted slightly towards La Niña thresholds, but all remain within neutral bounds. All climate models indicate more cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, but only two of eight models exceed La Niña thresholds for an extended period. A La Niña WATCH (indicat...
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SUPER MONSOON SPELL FOR KARACHI OVER?

Karachi received exceptionally heavy rains from the system.However,major cities of Sindh disappointed from the system. This was just because of sudden variations in atmospheric conditions.Models just failed to keep our hopes alive ,as yesterday system was concentrated over Central sindh,instead of it,rains occurred in coastal parts including Karachi yesterday.This could be attributed to climate change. What's next? System is now as weak circulation & is weakening as remnants. But for now,it may cause little bit activity today in Karachi divisions,Thatta and Badin today. Happy Eid Mubarak
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Difference between western disturbances and monsoon

We all have heard two terms 'western disturbance' and 'monsoon'.But most from us don't know what they exactly are and how they both differ from each other. Monsoon is a seasonal reversal of winds occurring from June to September. Monsoon occurs for temporary period but is associated with wet summers however,dry winters.On the other hand,western disturbance is extra tropical disturbance/cyclone originating from Mediterranean sea & make its journey towards Pakistan after crossing Iran, and Afghanistan.Unlike monsoon,western disturbance moisture is carried in upper atmosphere & western jet help it to transport to another place,due to which WD have less or negligible convection.But don't be confused,WD in most cases have high convection that leads to flooding rains (usually during interaction with monsoon currents). Unlike,monsoon currents which are usually seen in low levels of atmosphere,WD are usually found in mid & upper levels,in rare cases can b...
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