SINDH WEATHER

A DEPRESSION WHICH IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIA,IS TRACKED TO MOVE RAJASTHAN IN COMING DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OR UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION (UAC).FEW PARAMETERS INDICATING THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS WEAK UAC MAY MOVES IN SINDH,PRODUCING FEW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF SINDH  IN LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.SOME PARAMETERS LIKE CMC ALSO AGREE WITH THIS FORECAST. WE ARE EXPECTING ONE MORE SYSTEM TO FORM AND MOVE IN SINDH DURING FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. FORECAST FOR 19 - 21 AUGUST FEEBLE WD CIRCULATION AS WEAK TROUGH LIKELY TO RESIST IN UPPER PARTS OF PAKISTAN,PRODUCING FEW SHOWERS IN UPPER PUNJAB,KPK AND FATA. SPECIAL UPDATE THERE IS NO ANY MONSOON WIND  IN ENTIRE PAKISTAN. WHAT IS THE REASON? •INCESSANT DEVELOPING TYPHOONS IN PACIFIC OCEAN ABSORBING ALL MONSOON MOISTURE. INDEED 'ALMIGHTY ALLAH' KNOWS THE BEST (NO DOUBT)....

A less marked low pressure is seen over uttar Pradesh (India). Another low pressure is located in bay of Bengal and according to several models,it will intensify in to well marked low pressure area.Western disturbance (WD) as trough present over some eastern and central parts of Pakistan. •rain of light to moderate (to a bit heavy) intensity expected in northern and few central parts of pakistan during next 24-48 hours.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM AND MARITIME TROPICAL STEAMY AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING HEAVIER RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL IN MANY PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI . FOLLOWING RAIN AMOUNTS RECORDED ON SATURDAY,13 AUGUST: •696.468 mm NEAR BROWNFIELDS,LOUISIANA. •667.004mm IN MONTICELLO, LOUISIANA. •580.136mm IN GLOSTER,MISSISSIPPI. •547.624mm NEAR JACKSON,LOUISIANA. •486.156mm IN BATON ROUGE,LOUISIANA (RECORD DAILY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY) •366.522mm IN PANAMA CITY,FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE REPORTED FROM THESE AREAS.MANY PARTS ARE SEVERE INUNDATED UNDER WATER.

La Niña WATCH remains, while strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Niña thresholds. In contrast, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, with ocean temperature well above average in the eastern Indian Ocean and below average near Africa. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the negative IOD will persist until the end of spring, which historically has brought increased rainfall to southern Australia. Sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight. Some atmospheric indicators have shifted slightly towards La Niña thresholds, but all remain within neutral bounds. All climate models indicate more cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, but only two of eight models exceed La Niña thresholds for an extended period. A La Niña WATCH (indicating a 50% chance of La N

IT SEEMS THAT THERE ARE NO ACTIVE SYSTEM RIGHT NOW WHICH CAN CHANGE THE WEATHER . FEEBLE WESTERN DISTURBANCE CIRCULATION OVER PUNJ AB . UNDER THIS INFLUENCE RAIN OF MODERATE TO A BIT HEAVY EXPECTED IN SOME WESTERN PARTS OF PUNJAB,FATA, NWF P AND NORTHERN PAKISTAN . HOT AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN SINDH . DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONSOON IS PRESENTLY WEAK AND PRODUCING SOME RAINS OVER UPPER PAKISTAN. SYNOPTIC A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE PRESENT OVER NORTHWEST CHHATTISGARH ,NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH AND SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH.A FEEBLE WESTERN DISTURBANCE CIRCULATION IS OVER PUNJAB (PAKISTAN). WESTERN DISTURBANCE CIRCULATION IS FORMED DUE TO TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS.COOL AIR FROM WEST OR NORTH.WARM AIR STILL RESISTING OVER PUNJAB,DEVELOPING A WESTERN DISTURBANCE CIRCULATION.BUT,ITS INTENSITY IS EXTREMELY FEEBLE. WEAK MONSOON WINDS STILL PENETRATING UPPER PARTS OFPAKISTAN. FORECAST ACCORDING TO GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS,EASTERLIES ARE COMING BACK FROM 25 AUGUST 2016. UNDER THIS INFLUENCE, SOUTHEAST PARTS OF SINDH WILL START RECEIVING GOOD MONSOON SHOWERS FROM AUG 25.AFTER 26/27 SYSTEM WILL SPREAD IN TO ALL OVER THE SINDH. ACCORDING CPC PREDICTIONS,1 OR 2 HEAVY SPELL OF RAIN EXPECTED IN SINDH.BUT ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST,NOT CONFIRMED YET.

GOOD THUNDERSHOWERS EXPECTED IN FATA , NWFP AND SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF PAKISTAN. SYNOPTIC A WESTERN DISTURBANCE WITH ITS HIGH CONCENTRATION OVER AFGHANISTAN,SLIGHTLY AFFECTING UPPER PARTS OF PAKISTAN. FEEBLE MONSOON CURRENTS PENETRATING IN UPPER PARTS OF PAKISTAN . WHAT IS THE REASON BEHIND POOR MO NSOON RAINFALL? INCESSA NT DEVELOPING TYPHOONS IN PACIFIC OCEAN AND NEGATIVE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE ARE THE MAIN REASON FOR POOR MONSOON RAINFALL .

A LOW PRESSURE (DEPRESSION) PRESENTLY OVER BANGLADESH,BOOSTING MONSOON INCURSIONS OVER BIHAR ,JHARKHAND,ODISHA AND SLIGHTLY CHHATTISGARH.ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH RAJASTHAN INCREASING MONSOON RAINS IN PUNJAB,PAKISTAN. ACCORDING TO CMC ENSEMBLES, BUT TRACK IS STILL NOT CONFIRMED YET BECAUSE THESE MODELS HAVE A CHANCE TO BE CHANGED. WILL SINDH BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM? WE SHOULD WAIT FOR COMING DAYS.

CURRENT SITUATION OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE IN SINDH TILL MONDAY MORNING MONSOON WINDS CONTINUOUSLY ENTERING SINDH DUE TO A UAC (NOW AS LOW PRESSURE) OVER GUJARAT AND ADJOINING SINDH. AIR IS MUCH UNSTABLE IN SINDH ,ENOUGH FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORMATIONS TOMORROW AS WELL AND MAY CONTINUE TILL MONDAY MORNING OR LATE AFTERNOON. WEATHER OUTLOOK NEXT 24 HOURS RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS EXPECTED IN MOST PARTS OF SINDH THAT MAY GENERATE FLASH FLOODING .